Saturday, September 10, 2005


posted by Unknown
Fantasy Baseball is getting complicated. As sites like Rotoworld and Rototimes make it easier for the average fantasy baseball player to keep abreast of the latest news and developments more and more players are seeking a new edge. Many sites seek to provide that edge by developing better methods of prognostication. Complex formulas have been created in an attempt to more accurately measure a player's power or speed. Some sites have taken to particular ratios that they give fancy new names to get an edge on predicting pitching performance. New draft strategies that teach you to use these new formulas, ratios and methods to select players during your draft or auction are becoming extremely popular. I subscribe to many of these sites myself and I love reading their theories and and looking at the incredible amounts of work that has been done in the form of charts and graphs. But when draft day arrives or I need to pick up a free agent player or someone off the waiver wire I never use these methods or formulas when actually making a decision. Why? Because I like to keep it simple.

I make intelligent and informed decisions without using any math more complicated than the average forth grader can do in his head. I can predict trends in a players development accurately without the use of a complicated computer program. I can teach you to draft a fantasy team that is capable of winning every category including the "unpredictable" wins, saves, era and ratio. I can show you how to select the minor leaguers that become stars and thus vital parts of your keeper league team. I can teach you to do all this and more without any complicated math or formulas.

Please don't interpret this as a slam on the sites that use the formulas and methods I insist you don't actually need. I love the math. I was that kid in high school that actually enjoyed calculus and physics. I love the theories and I've used the strategies. If you like Baseball HQ or by all means continue to use them. This site aims to be a compliment to such sites if you enjoy them and an alternative for those that don't. The great thing about the ideas I intend to share is that they are so simple that incorporating them into the methods of other sites is easy and will likely help you understand their reasoning a bit better. One thing you'll soon learn about this site is it recommends you read and learn from as many different sources as you are capable of without getting overwhelmed or confused. I'll even suggest the sites I find useful.

What do I hope to gain? Hopefully I'll soon earn your respect and you'll help support this site in whatever fashion you are able. In return I will over you daily advice and analysis on everyday's baseball news and developments. I'll be available by e-mail to help you make decisions or just offer that second pair of eyes on a trade or roster move. I will keep posting helpful articles and keep them available to you on an archive that will constantly grow. And most of all I'll keep it simple.

See you real soon.

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Blogger RotoAuthority said...

alright Jon, you've got my interest. any insight as to how you'll predict such unpredictable stats as wins and saves? I'd add RBIs to that group as well.

ERA and WHIP I think are closer to batting average in that formulas can approximate them pretty well.

I'm surprised Baseball Prospectus and the like refuse to predict Wins and RBI totals - whether or not these categories are revelant in player analysis, they are relevant to fantasy baseball players. BP has to know a large contingent of its audience plays fantasy baseball. glad to see a new site out there, good luck. mine just started a few months ago.

Tuesday, September 13, 2005 at 4:51:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Fake Teams said...

I doubt you'll see this, but I have to agree 100%.

I understand the formulae and the rational behind the predictions made with these new forecasting devices.

I ran rotisserie baseball musing for a year-and-a-half before landing the gig at Fake Tams.

It is chock full of similar sounding strategies.

Saturday, November 18, 2006 at 8:36:00 PM EST  
Blogger Jon Williams said...

Fake Teams - Not sure exactly what you're agreeing with but I'm shocked and delighted that someone is reading the old stuff.

Some of the earlier stuff is a little rambling as I wasn't quite sure what I wanted to do. Then there's a bunch of stuff I wrote for other sites some of it relevant and some not so much. The new stuff is much better thought out (I hope) and hopefully helpful to others. A lot more so than my pages long rambling on the Diamondbacks...sheesh.

I tried to check out Rotisserie Baseball Musing but it seems to be gone. Too bad I love reading old fantasy stuff. I used to buy old fantasy books in the dollar store way back when.

Thanks for reading and thanks for the mention on your blog!

Saturday, November 18, 2006 at 10:21:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sunday, November 19, 2006 at 10:54:00 AM EST  

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