Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Preparing-For-the-2006-Fantasy-Season-Part-Two

posted by Jon Williams
Felipe Lopez
Felipe Lopez probably came cheap in 2005 and makes a great keeper.

If you followed the direction given in Part One of Preparing for thr 2006 Fantasy Season you have a grasp on two things. The talent on your roster and its general worth to others in your league and what sort of talent the other teams in your league are holding. With this information you're armed to take the next step.

Trading to Increase the Talent Level of Your Keepers



In order to trade effectively you must always have three things in mind:
  1. The strengths and weaknesses of your present group of keepers. This means you know the dollar value of your players for the next season (an approximate level if you haven't found projections you like or prepared your own). The positions where you have good talent you can keep and the positions where you don't have good value. You also want a general idea of the auction value of your keepers. You need this information so that you don't trade away more value than you mean to trade and so you know how much value you should expect in return.
  2. The needs, strengths and weaknesses of the team who holds the player you've targeted. It is never to your long-term advantage to rip off another team. While you should target the players that best suit your needs you also need to keep in mind the needs of the team you're dealing with. If at all possible you want to offer your opponent players he needs. If you can't actually offer what a team needs you should be sure to offer significant value in return. You should always consider whether or not you'd do the same trade if you were in the shoes of your opponent. It isn't always necessary that you would do the trade in reverse but you must be able to see why your opponent would do the trade and what value they'll receive in return.
  3. How the trade effects your talent level, your draft budget and your draft strategy. Before making any trade you should have at least a general idea of your draft or auction strategy and how the player or players you're seeking fit into that plan. You want to be sure that you are getting a player or players that will actually help develop your strategy rather than just adding players at good values. For example, Mark Buerle at $22 may be a great deal in your league but if your strategy is basically LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) you'll actually be wrecking your own plan. In the same league Hideki Matsui at $24 may not be a great bargain but its a player that will actually fit into your plan and that is your primary goal.
Before you make any deals you should rank your keepers in order of value. You want to know which players fit best into your strategy and which should be traded if at all possible. If you can keep eight players and you have twelve quality keepers then #'s 8,9,10,11 and 12 become the players you'd most like to trade. If you can't improve over your eighth keeper then you shouldn't attempt to trade but rare is the occassion where you can't trade and make yourself better. Also, if you've somehow ended up with four great second basemen trading at least one of those should be a priority.

Here are three tips for making trading easy:

  1. Don't bother with lowball offers. Lowball offers are insulting. When your opponent becomes insulted two things happen. He wants to get the better of you and he becomes resistant to your efforts to trade with him no matter how reasonable your subsequent offers become. A good way to judge is to measure the amount of profit your end of the trade provides against the amount of profit on your opponent's end. Don't offer any trades that are more than 10% in your advantage.
  2. Make offers your opponent can actually accept. While you're offering fair value consider if your opponent can actually fit the players onto his roster of keepers. You maybe able to offer your opponent six players with a profit of $30 total for a one player who is $30 undervalue but your opponent gets nothing out of this deal but clogged roster spots. Also, don't offer your opponent a corner if he already has three corners that are obviously better values. Taking your opponents needs into consideration will always make trading easier.
  3. Don't be afraid to overpay if you can do it safely. If you have an abundance of quality keepers and cannot use them all in fair trades, overpaying to get a player that may not have been available otherwise is a very acceptable if underused tactic. Just take care that you don't make your leaguemate a better deal than necessary or that making the trade makes your opponent's roster stronger than yours. When you will obviously have to overpay it may be wise to make your first offer one that cannot be refused because it is so obviously in his favor.
I apologize about the large gap between posts lately. Real life intervened and made posting difficult. But I should be back on a regular schedule from this point forward. Thanks for sticking around. Peace.

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