Thursday, May 21, 2009

TRADE: Jake Peavy to White Sox

posted by Jon Williams

Will Carroll has reported on Baseball Prospectus.com and similar reports are flooding sports radio outlets that the San Diego Padres have traded All Star starting pitcher, Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for a collection of players. The deal is apparently agreed to by both clubs but is awaiting the approval of Peavy who has a No-Trade clause in his contract.
The Padres and White Sox agreed to a trade centered on Jake Peavy moving from the Padres to the White Sox. Peavy has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in the National League and a source close to Peavy re-iterated that in a call this morning. Peavy has a three year extension in place beginning in 2010, so there’s not much that the White Sox can do to give him more incentive. One of the main concerns, I was told, is that Peavy is unsure about playing for Ozzie Guillen. Peavy has until tomorrow to approve the deal. No “window” has been open or requested by either team.

The White Sox made an aggressive first offer of four players, including Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two other prospects. Gordon Beckham is thought to have been discussed, though it is unlikely the Sox would be willing to deal him, even for Peavy. He would have to be traded as a PTBNL, due to the Incaviglia rule. There’s been speculation that the Sox would deal Chris Getz, but again, the names included in the agreed deal have not been confirmed by any outlet at this time.
This is not a good trade for Peavy's fantasy owners (especially the ones in leagues that do not allow owners to keep players traded to the other league). Peavy has spent his MLB career in the best pitching environment in MLB - Petco Park. If he approves the deal he will be pitching in a homerun park that is likely to significantly errode Peavy's fantasy value. His HR/FB will take a huge jump based on just the change in home park alone. Peavy will also have to face the much stronger American League lineups that include designated hitters rather than his fellow pitchers.

Clayton Richard who has shown borderline LIMA skills and would look much better in the National League starting for the Padres. Aaron Poreda is a top pitching prospect but still has significant developing to do before he becomes a starting option. Gordon Beckham is an awesome hitter. If he were included this would have to be considered a very good deal for the Padres. Beckham would be listed as a PTBNL because players have to be with the teams that drafted them for at least a year before they can be dealt.

Season Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP
2002 Padres 8.29 3.04 2.73 1.01 1.42 0.339 0.70 3.69
2003 Padres 7.21 3.79 1.90 1.53 1.31 0.263 0.78 4.99
2004 Padres 9.36 2.87 3.26 0.70 1.20 0.310 0.84 3.14
2005 Padres 9.58 2.22 4.32 0.80 1.04 0.288 0.77 2.89
2005 Padres 6.23 6.23 1.00 4.15 2.54 0.394 0.37 9.71
2006 Padres 9.56 2.76 3.47 1.02 1.23 0.316 0.73 3.51
2006 Padres 3.38 1.69 2.00 1.69 2.25 0.434 0.66 5.40
2007 Padres 9.67 2.74 3.53 0.52 1.06 0.286 0.78 2.84
2008 Padres 8.60 3.06 2.81 0.88 1.18 0.285 0.82 3.60
2009 Padres 10.13 2.79 3.63 1.03 1.11 0.288 0.71 3.35

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