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It's all based around Upton's BABIP on different types of batted balls. It does ignore Upton's reduced walk rate and elevated strikeout rate. His HR/FB is also even worse than it was last season. So there is a lot of reason to be pessimistic. That said I have complete faith that he will turn it all around this season.
From DRaysBay.com:I still think Upton is going to be a beast this season. I wouldn't pay full price but if an owner in your league is offering discounted Upton I would leap at the deal. If you're holding Upton, you've probably received a ton of low ball offers. Keep the faith and don't give in. There is still A LOT of the season left. Check out Upton's career statistics below, courtesy of FanGraphs.com.
You can make two arguments about Upton's lack of GB hits:
1. He's lost speed.
2. He's been unlucky.
You know which way this is going. Upton's Speed Score is above his career average and his fielding remains excellent. Either he's become the most mechanically sound baserunner within the span of a season or he's still pretty damn fast. Given that Upton's strategy for stealing bases is run on the first move and outrun the relay throw to second, I'm going to go with the latter.
LABR: Big Papi has found a believer
|2006||Devil Rays (AAA)||14.00%||22.40%||0.374||0.394||0.126||7.4||0.329||0.360|
|2007||Devil Rays (A+)||22.70%||11.80%||0.375||0.412||0.176||1.9||0.214||0.356|
|2007||Devil Rays (AAA)||0.00%||14.30%||0.429||0.857||0.429||0.1||0.400||0.562|