Monday, June 01, 2009

Hope for B.J. Upton Owners (and Ortiz...kinda)

posted by Jon Williams
I've received over a dozen e-mails from B.J. Upton owners this week. Everyone has the same question. When will Upton start to hit? Well, I obviously don't have those answers and no one possibly could. But the guys at DRaysBay.com have posted an article that just might provide Upton owners with a little hope for the future.

Tampa Bay Ray's Tickets as low as $5!


It's all based around Upton's BABIP on different types of batted balls. It does ignore Upton's reduced walk rate and elevated strikeout rate. His HR/FB is also even worse than it was last season. So there is a lot of reason to be pessimistic. That said I have complete faith that he will turn it all around this season.
From DRaysBay.com:

You can make two arguments about Upton's lack of GB hits:

1. He's lost speed.

2. He's been unlucky.

You know which way this is going. Upton's Speed Score is above his career average and his fielding remains excellent. Either he's become the most mechanically sound baserunner within the span of a season or he's still pretty damn fast. Given that Upton's strategy for stealing bases is run on the first move and outrun the relay throw to second, I'm going to go with the latter.

I still think Upton is going to be a beast this season. I wouldn't pay full price but if an owner in your league is offering discounted Upton I would leap at the deal. If you're holding Upton, you've probably received a ton of low ball offers. Keep the faith and don't give in. There is still A LOT of the season left. Check out Upton's career statistics below, courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

LABR: Big Papi has found a believer

ESPN Shop - Father's Day 09


Season Team BB% K% OBP SLG ISO Spd BABIP wOBA
2004 Devil Rays 8.60% 28.90% 0.324 0.409 0.151 5.3 0.339 0.323
2006 Devil Rays (AAA) 14.00% 22.40% 0.374 0.394 0.126 7.4 0.329 0.360
2006 Devil Rays 6.90% 22.90% 0.302 0.291 0.046 4.8 0.313 0.275
2007 Devil Rays (A+) 22.70% 11.80% 0.375 0.412 0.176 1.9 0.214 0.356
2007 Devil Rays (AAA) 0.00% 14.30% 0.429 0.857 0.429 0.1 0.400 0.562
2007 Devil Rays 12.10% 32.50% 0.386 0.508 0.209 4.9 0.399 0.387
2008 Rays 15.40% 25.20% 0.383 0.401 0.128 5.7 0.351 0.354
2008 Rays 7.00% 24.20% 0.333 0.652 0.364 8.7 0.279 0.425
2009 Rays (A+) 30.80% 22.20% 0.643 0.444 0.000 3.2 0.571 0.489
2009 Rays 11.80% 32.30% 0.297 0.290 0.086 7.4 0.290 0.282

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