Monday, June 15, 2009

Trade Advice: Carlos Lee/Edwin Jackson for Adam Lind/CC Sabathia

posted by Unknown
The following is a request for trade advice I received by e-mail. It has been slightly edited for length and clarity.
Hey Jon, I have been in talks with an owner in my Keeper League who owns CC Sabathia. The guy I am talking to wants power hitters and is interested in Edwin Jackson. I really like Edwin Jackson as a keeper league because I feel like he'll continue to get better and better. I offered him a trade and let him know I was really only interested in Carl Crawford and Sabathia from his team. I would give Carlos Lee, Edwin Jackson, Fernando Rodney, and Carl Pavano for Carl Crawford, CC Sabathia, and David Ortiz (this was before his recent hot streak). He actually liked the framework of the deal if we could pull out Carl Crawford. Adam Lind is another guy on his team I would not mind owning. But I do not know if I completely trust his season let alone his future talent. I have been told good things many times and have read about his future, but I do not want to create a gaping hole in my offense where Carlos Lee once stood to give my pitching just a small increase. I also own Nolasco, Peavy, Lincecum, Hanson, Beckett, Price, Harang, Vazquez and Ervin Santana. I feel that I have a pretty strong if Santana of LA can turn it around and Pavano can stay solid as well as Vazquez I have a pretty strong rotation. I just need some advice if you can dish some out. Really just another opinion besides my buddy who is also in the league. Thanks Jon. -Gary

Hey Gary,

I don't think you're desperate enough for pitching to do this deal without Carl Crawford. But it may interest you to know that Carlos Lee and Adam Lind are much closer than most realize at this point.

Carlos Lee:
.313/.363/.520 w/ 29runs, 11hr, 40rbi, 5sb
Adam Lind: .300/.364/.534 w/ 37runs, 12hr, 45rbi, 1sb

Unless there are salaries attached that I'm unaware of, these two players are virtually the same. Lind is probably a little bit better statistically but to a very small degree. He also plays in a better lineup which gives him superior runs/rbi totals. I do think Lind could hit a wall soon, but he seems to have the skills to adjust. I think he'll be a very good hitter for a long time.

Edwin Jackson also compares very well to CC Sabathia this year. If Jackson played for the Yankees he would be on the verge of becoming a huge star. Trading Jackson for Sabathia would net you very little if anything.

CC Sabathia: 5-4, 3.68era, 1.13whip, 6.48 K9, 2.81 BB9, 3.74 FIP
Edwin Jackson: 6-3, 2.24era, 1.03whip, 6.62 K9, 2.34 BB9, 3.27 FIP

Since these two parts of the trade balance out so well the remainder of the deal becomes Fernando Rodney and Carl Pavano for David Ortiz. I believe that Ortiz will have a strong second half of the season and be a solid if not great player to own from this point. But you would be giving up a solid closer and a solid starter for a player that to this point has been nothing but disappointing. I think that price is too high.

Even if you can afford to give up the saves and innings you'll get from Rodney and Pavano I don't see enough of a gain for you. A solid closer alone should bring you a solid veteran already having a good season. And as you mentioned, your pitching staff is already potentially very strong. You would be making this trade just to make it.

Good luck Gary, let me know if I can help any further.

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Blogger Schruender said...

Adam Lind has already adjusted to hitting a wall. He had an OPS of .933 in April and everyone assumed he had arrived. Then the OPS went to .786 in May and suddenly he was a guy that couldn't hang around. This month his OPS is 1.148 and he has already tagged more home runs than he had in either of the previous two months. That's not to say he won't hit a more prolonged drought somewhere along the line, but I think Lind is going to be a player. If anything, he's less susceptible to injury whereas Carlos Lee recently sat out games last weekend and sat out the entire month of September last year. I wouldn't trade Lind straight up for Carlos, but the overall deal makes it worthwhile.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009 at 1:14:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Jon Williams said...

I guess it all depends on how much better than Lee you think Lind is. Or how confident you are in Ortiz coming back. Which is it for you?

Lind, Sabathia, Ortiz


C. Lee, E. Jackson, F. Rodney, C. Pavano

Wednesday, June 17, 2009 at 6:53:00 PM EDT  

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