Thursday, July 02, 2009

Mail Bag: Trade for Grady Sizemore? and More!

posted by Jon Williams
I am mostly caught up with e-mails from last week. If you haven't seen a response or you've been holding back for some reason, now is the time. You can reach me at Jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com I usually respond within 24 hours and usually much much less than that. And remember the more information you give me the better my response will be. Thanks everyone, please spread the word!

I am in a 4x4 league with American League ONLY & a cap of $26.00 AND I am in 4th to last place & I have Francisco Liriano locked in at $2.10 / 2007-2010. I have been offered Chris Ray (see below) by a contending team, now I sort of still have faith in Liriano but was wondering if it would be worth it to me to trade Liriano for 1 of the following to get out of locking me into him next year at $2.10? Like I said I was offerd Chris Ray but I can counter with 1 of his other bench / injured guys? Your thoughts on the following:

1.) Should I trade Liriano for one of the guys below?

2.) If yes, then who would you want? Please give me top 3 choices if there are even a top 3 choices to list.

Ray, Chris RP BAL .10 2008
Lowell, Mike 3B BOS 1.80 2009
Lowrie, Jed SS BOS 1.00 2008
Aviles, Mike SS KC .30 2008
Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS 1.50 2007 - 2010
Brignac, Reid SS TB .20 2009

Thanks, Jay
Hey Jay,

I still have faith in Liriano coming around but at $2.10 (especially in a 4x4) I can see why you might like to get out from beneath the contract. Chris Ray at .10 isn't a bad option. His talent is great, unfortunately George Sherrill is pitching very well and saves may not come for a while. But at that price I think he'll have value as a quality middle reliever. I'm assuming that you are more in dump mode than fight for every point mode. I would ask for two off this list of players and see if he bites.

1. Mike Avilles .30 - Just announced he'll miss the rest of the season after having Tommy John Surgery. But this isn't as big a deal for hitter as it is for pitchers. I think he will greatly improve on his value in 2010.
2. Reid Brignac .20 - He proved in a recent call-up that he has some skills. The Rays are going to have to play him or trade him next year if they want to get any value from him. He is a former top prospect that underachieved for a while. I think he'll still be a top 10 SS in the AL in the not too distant future.
3. Jed Lowrie 1.00 - Pretty obvious that SS is a weak position in the AL. I like Lowrie to have a Pedroia-like development. This is not to say I think he'll have a MVP season but I think he'll be a very solid middle infielder.
4. Mike Lowell 1.80 - Lowell is hurting right now but I still believe he'll have an impact after the break. he just needs to have regular rest. At 1.80 he is a decent keep for 2010 if he stays in the AL.
5. Chris Ray .10 - A solid middle reliever who has a chance at saves in the future. See comments above.
6. Dice-K 1.50 - Dice-K needs to get straight again but I like his chances at a comeback. His stuff is still too good to ignore.
***
Hi Jon,

First off -- want to say that I love the site. Found you via a link on Razzball (another favorite of mine) and really appreciate the insight you provide.

Decided I'd take you up on the free advice offer. I have a trade in the works that could really define my season and I'm torn. I'm in a 10-team 6x6 roto league that counts OPS and Holds. I'm in a position where I need to clear an OF spot because I have Manny and Josh Hamilton coming back within the next several days-- both of whom I think will produce as expected. I also have Braun, Justin Upton, Crawford, Nelson Cruz and Brad Hawpe starting for me so I'm deep.

I have the opportunity to trade Cruz and Hawpe for Roy Halladay and Sizemore. Normally I would do this in a heartbeat but Grady's elbow (and the news that he will most likely need surgery in the offseason) scares the bejesus out of me. I can sweeten this deal by getting Slowey for Lowe as well (is that an upgrade?) and do need to gain significant ground in wins, WHIP and ERA so Halladay would be huge. I just worry that I'm giving up way too much offensive production for a guy that might get shut down in August because his team is 30 games out of first. On the other hand, if Grady stays healthy and produces then this appears to be a steal for me.

Is this trade worth the risk? Really look forward to your thoughts on this one.

Thanks Jon!
You have a pretty interesting situation here. You obviously have a stacked outfield.

Manny Ramirez
Josh Hamilton
Ryan Braun
Carl Crawford
Nelson Cruz
Brad Hawpe
Justin Upton

This is a very deep group. Any combination of five would be a winner for you and adding Sizemore to the mix just makes it that much more exciting. If you did the trade you would be left with an outfield and utility of Ramirez, Hamilton, Sizemore, Braun, Crawford, Upton -- even in a ten team league that is impressive. If Sizemore is healthy he is likely better than either Cruz or Hawpe. Trading one of these guys for Halladay is a great move for you. The question becomes is gaining Halladay worth the risk of trading Hawpe for Sizemore. I would have to say that it is.

In your best case scenario Sizemore can finish the season and plays up to his normal standards and provides you with close to 20/20 in the second half and you get an ace starter in Halladay. The worst case scenario is Sizemore gets hurt and you have to find a new utility player. You still get the upside of adding Halladay. You are definitely taking a risk but I think a good one. You always run the risk of injuries. Any one of your other outfielders could be hurt at any time, its just part of the game. Sizemore would not be the first player to play through this type of injury. I also would not be shocked to see the Indians DH Sizemore quite a bit and give Hafner some starts at first base.

I would do this deal. Thanks for sharing with me.

***
Hi Jon,

Need some more pitching advice for week 14. Again, I start 6 (min. 4 SP, min 1 RP and 1 utility) in a 12 team points based H2H League.


• Correia @ ARI (Davis), @ SF (Zito)
• Cueto @ PHI (Hamels), @ NYM (Santana)
• Dempster vs. ATL (Vasquez), vs. STL (most likely to happen if CHI reshuffles its rotation right before the break
• Greinke @ DET (French)
• Jackson vs. CLE (Lee)
• Marquis vs. WAS (Stammen), vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
• Danks vs. CLE (Pavano)
• Nolasco @ ARI (Haren)

• Franklin @ MIL (3), @ CHI (3)
• Aardsma vs. BAL (3), vs. TEX (4)
• Soria @ DET (3), @ BOS (4)

Thanks,

Sean
Hey Sean,

Hopefully I can do better than last week for you...

Greinke @DET is a must start.
Jackson vs CLE
Danks vs CLE
Nolasco @ARI
Correia @ARI and @ SF
Soria
Franklin

Good luck!

***

Hey Jon

Wanted to get your thoughts on a few trade offers I'm thinking about. This league includes OPS so please bear that in mind.

Jason Bay's owner is looking to move him and pick up some speed. Here are 2 offers he's posed to me:
1. Bay & Stephen Drew for Kinsler & Victorino
2. Bay & Zimmerman for Victorino & Adrian Gonzalez

Thanks a ton!

Dan
Hey Dan,

I'm not excited about either deal for you. I would not do the Kinsler deal. The Gonzalez deal is doable (I would not do it but it isn't an awful deal) but if he's really desperate for steals I would expect him to make you a better offer. One that doesn't end up taking away more power than you actually get back. Offer him Victorino for just Bay that is much fairer than you throwing in a top player for a mid-tier performer.

Good luck.

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