Sunday, February 26, 2012

The Continuing Search For Wins...

posted by Jon Williams
After linking to last year's article in yesterday's Free Draft Kit post, I was asked by a few people for an updated list of the pitchers most likely to add wins to your roster. Remember that the keys are tons of innings, at least a 7.5 K9, and a strong groundball rate. I like the GB rate to be at least 40 percent but I'm flexible if the K9 rate is very high.

I included pitchers with 160-plus innings this year with the hope that we might find a few pitchers ready to make an innings leap. Not many made the cut, due to our high standards.

Name IP W K/9 K/BB GB% BABIP BB/9 SIERA xFIP
Zack Greinke 171.2 16 10.54 4.47 47.30% 0.318 2.36 2.66 2.56
Brandon Morrow 179.1 11 10.19 2.94 36.00% 0.299 3.46 3.31 3.53
Clayton Kershaw 233.1 21 9.57 4.59 43.20% 0.269 2.08 2.81 2.84
Anibal Sanchez 196.1 8 9.26 3.16 44.30% 0.31 2.93 3.29 3.25
Cliff Lee 232.2 17 9.21 5.67 46.30% 0.291 1.62 2.72 2.68
Tim Lincecum 217 13 9.12 2.56 47.90% 0.281 3.57 3.46 3.36
Michael Pineda 171 9 9.11 3.15 36.30% 0.258 2.89 3.36 3.53
Yovani Gallardo 207.1 17 8.99 3.51 46.60% 0.291 2.56 3.22 3.19
Justin Verlander 251 24 8.96 4.39 40.20% 0.236 2.04 2.99 3.12
Matt Garza 198 10 8.95 3.13 46.30% 0.306 2.86 3.31 3.19
Gio Gonzalez 202 16 8.78 2.16 47.50% 0.287 4.05 3.78 3.73
David Price 224.1 12 8.75 3.46 44.30% 0.281 2.53 3.27 3.32
CC Sabathia 237.1 19 8.72 3.77 46.60% 0.318 2.31 3.14 3.02
Ubaldo Jimenez 188.1 10 8.6 2.31 47.20% 0.314 3.73 3.74 3.71
Mat Latos 194.1 9 8.57 2.98 42.80% 0.284 2.87 3.48 3.52
Felix Hernandez 233.2 14 8.55 3.31 50.20% 0.307 2.58 3.22 3.15
Jon Lester 191.2 15 8.55 2.43 50.50% 0.286 3.52 3.59 3.62
Bud Norris 186 6 8.52 2.51 39.70% 0.294 3.39 3.73 3.73
Ryan Dempster 202.1 10 8.5 2.33 44.10% 0.324 3.65 3.79 3.7
Roy Halladay 233.2 19 8.47 6.29 50.90% 0.298 1.35 2.79 2.71
Madison Bumgarner 204.2 13 8.4 4.15 46.00% 0.322 2.02 3.18 3.1
C.J. Wilson 223.1 16 8.3 2.78 49.30% 0.287 2.98 3.44 3.41
A.J. Burnett 190.1 11 8.18 2.08 49.20% 0.294 3.92 3.89 3.86
Josh Beckett 193 13 8.16 3.37 40.10% 0.245 2.42 3.43 3.58
Chris Capuano 186 11 8.13 3.17 42.70% 0.311 2.56 3.6 3.67
James Shields 249.1 16 8.12 3.46 46.20% 0.258 2.35 3.29 3.25
Cole Hamels 216 14 8.08 4.41 52.30% 0.255 1.83 3.03 3.02
Max Scherzer 195 15 8.03 3.11 40.30% 0.314 2.58 3.63 3.7
Ian Kennedy 222 21 8.03 3.6 38.60% 0.27 2.23 3.44 3.5
Wandy Rodriguez 191 11 7.82 2.41 45.20% 0.289 3.25 3.8 3.72
Colby Lewis 200.1 14 7.59 3.02 34.10% 0.265 2.52 3.88 4.1
Javier Vazquez 192.2 13 7.57 3.24 34.20% 0.279 2.34 3.78 3.87
Jered Weaver 235.2 18 7.56 3.54 32.50% 0.25 2.14 3.67 3.8

The names I find most interesting as potential bargains are Anibal Sanchez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bud Norris, Ryan Dempster, A.J. Burnett, Chris Capuano and Max Scherzer. These pitchers are the ones on this list I would give the greatest odds of having a breakout season as well as coming at a potential discount for various reasons.

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