tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post3407276198773540205..comments2019-08-13T09:48:43.695-04:00Comments on Advanced Fantasy Baseball: DRAFT INFLATIONUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-12695901271866711152015-08-08T11:34:40.217-04:002015-08-08T11:34:40.217-04:00Just spotted this, I'm not as active as I used...Just spotted this, I'm not as active as I used to be. Looks ok to me, you have nearly 800 of surplus value in your league's keepers. Your keepers are nearly half price! That extra cash has to go somewhere. Jon Williamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09950246479397747057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-22142496069466245492015-03-03T00:55:11.782-05:002015-03-03T00:55:11.782-05:00I know this is an old article but I found this whe...I know this is an old article but I found this when I was google searching for Keeper Inflation.<br /><br />I am trying to calculate keeper inflation for my 12 team keeper league. Each team gets $260 for the auction and we are able to keep up to 9 MLB Players. We are starting our fourth season for this league this year. I have been using this article from Fangraphâ€™s to help guide me on how to do it. <br />http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-to-account-for-keeper-inflation-in-your-auction-draft/<br /><br />These are the calculations I have done.<br />9 Keepers per team able to be kept 9*12 108<br />Total Players actually kept 97<br />Total Cost for Players that have been kept 1072<br />Total Market Value for Players kept 1827<br />Total League Budget 12*260 3120<br />Remaining League Budget 3120-1072 2048<br />Remaining Value Available 3120-1827 1293<br />Remaining Budget 2048/ Remaining Value 1293 1.58391338<br /><br />So it looks like I have a keeper league inflation of 58%. Did I do these calculations correctly?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-72559951824542440202012-03-30T11:56:15.109-04:002012-03-30T11:56:15.109-04:00Yes, I think you are missing something there. You...Yes, I think you are missing something there. Your league must have 12 teams, since there are $3120 in salary dollars to spend. You said the total projected value of all keepers in the league is $1245, and that the total salary dedicated to those players is $1090. To calculate your league's inflation rate, you first subtract the projected value of the keepers from the total value of the player pool. ($3120 - $1245 = $1875) Then you take the actual cost of the players kept ($1090) and subtract this amount from the total league salary. ($3120 - $1090 = $2030). This means your league auction will have $2030 auction dollars chasing $1875 worth of players. This difference is what creates inflation, driving prices upward. To figure the inflation factor in your league, you just divide the auction salary dollars by the auction player value dollars ($2030 divided by $1875) and you get 1.08. This means your league inflation rate is a very mild eight percent (8%). If your calculations have told you that the non-inflated value of Pujols is $44, then his inflated value would be $47.52. You can round up or down, unless your league uses increments less than a dollar.<br /><br />A couple of things...in order for your inflation calculation to be accurate, you must start with accurate values for the players being kept. This, of course, is somewhat subjective, but make sure they are values you are comfortable with. The other thing is that if you have 12 owners with $3120 to spend on player salaries, then the value of the player pool must be $3120. If you use 23 players per team (276 total) then the value of those 276 players must equal $3120. If you have anything higher or lower, your calculations will be off.<br /><br />In summary, I'm not quite sure where your calculation took a wrong turn, but what you should be doing is first finding the value of the players in the auction, by subtracting from $3120 the value of keepers. Then you find the amount of salary which will be available in the auction by subtracting from $3120 the cost of the keepers. (The second number will always be larger than the first, unless your league has keepers worth less than their salaries.) Divide the second number by the first, and you have league inflation. It will always result as a figure over 1. Take the first two numbers to the right of the decimal and that's your inflation rate expressed as a percentage. <br /><br />I hope this helps. If not, let me know and we'll look at it again.<br /><br />Good luck in your auction.Scootronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16859285958613375829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-14958086343862526982012-03-27T15:27:26.425-04:002012-03-27T15:27:26.425-04:00ok, so i ran the numbers of my league with your ca...ok, so i ran the numbers of my league with your calculations. we have 1090 worth of keeper salaries, and the "actual" draft value of those players is 1245. so that would give me a number of 155.5. the total league dollars is 3120, and subtracting the keepers from that give me 2030. dividing 2030 by 155.5 give me 15.0547. which makes pujols ($44.4) in my league worth $579.6. am i missing something?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-36783698472073147302012-03-22T14:41:14.972-04:002012-03-22T14:41:14.972-04:00Shouldnt it be based on the value of unkept player...Shouldnt it be based on the value of unkept players as opposed to the value of kept players? So instead of $2,060 it should be the value of remaining players (based on roster spots that need to be filled.Dukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16672464937593164279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-60941163120510697412011-03-31T10:58:31.275-04:002011-03-31T10:58:31.275-04:00I wanted also to speak to the issue you mentioned ...I wanted also to speak to the issue you mentioned about a tool to measure individual counting stats like steals, home runs, etc. I'm not an economist or a mathematician, but I tried for 15 years to develop such a tool or formula. Every time I thought I had it made, it would fall apart in an actual auction context. <br /><br />I know there have been some brilliant fantasy baseball writers who have addressed that subject, but to be honest the math was over my head.Scootronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16859285958613375829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-54899463706080951492011-03-31T10:45:52.217-04:002011-03-31T10:45:52.217-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Scootronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16859285958613375829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-65109516974250193832011-03-31T10:42:41.425-04:002011-03-31T10:42:41.425-04:00(Part Two)
Now, a different twist...we can all co...(Part Two)<br /><br />Now, a different twist...we can all come up with a set of circumstances that might lead owners to pay over inflated value for a certain player or players. Part of that relates to the fact that all player values are subjective and conditional. By that I mean that player values are merely projections and very imperfect projections. But, more importantly, the actual value of a player can't be determined until the year is over. Even then, the concept of value only has meaning in the context of your particular league. Let's say you traded for Soria in your league at the All-Star break, and the four points in saves he gave you allowed you to win the league. Let's say that I also traded Soria in my league, but the saves he gave me didn't allow me to catch the owner ahead of me, so I stayed where I was in the standings and didn't win. Does that mean Soria was more valuable in your league than mine? Yes, in the sense that his performance put you over the top. No in the sense that his on-the-field performance was what it was, regardless of the impact it had on the millions of leagues in the country.<br /><br />In that sense, you might decide that Ellsbury is worth more than Miggy because of what you think he can do for your team, and he might provide that value for your team. But I know that there is no way to calculate or prognosticate the impact each and every player could have on league standings based upon freeze lists. We do know, however, that the inflation created by keepers worth more than their salary can be calculated, and that if you don't recognize it you can wind up getting steamrolled in your auction.<br /><br />You have raised a very interesting point, and I'd like to continue the dialogue, or have anyone else join in. <br /><br />Maybe part of the problem is in the name. Maybe we should call it "Keeper Inflation" to indicate that we are talking solely about the increase in auction prices due to cheap keepers. Then, if there are other types of inflation which we can objectively identify and project, then we can figure out how to deal with those other forms of inflation.<br /><br />Thanks for your comment. It made my day, and gave me a lot to think about. I hope my response has fairly addressed your question, but please let me know if there are other issues you would like to discuss. I like having this blog as something that sparks conversation and intellectual investigation, rather than us just writing articles about what we think. I'm going into my 26th year of fantasy baseball auctions, and I learn something every single year.Scootronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16859285958613375829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-21315052320132611022011-03-31T10:41:24.597-04:002011-03-31T10:41:24.597-04:00This is a very interesting question, and one I hav...This is a very interesting question, and one I have struggled with quite a bit. As you suggest, my position may seem counter-intuitive, so let's explore the issue. I may have to break this response into two parts to make it fit the character limit.<br /><br />There are a limited number of steals. But that number is the same, regardless of whether they are frozen steals or steals available in the auction. Let's put it in the context of closers, which is easier for me to wrap my head around.<br /><br />Say, for example, that in your league Soria is worth $20 before any calculation of inflation. Let's say that inflation calculates at 10% Say further that every single closer in the league is frozen except for Soria. Five of the twelve owners have no closer. Does that make Soria worth more? No. His projected statistics have not changed. Now, a couple of things could happen. Those five owners without closers could all decide to pursue him at virtually any cost. The bidding could go to $60 for Soria. Does that mean Soria is worth $60? It does in the sense that market value is in many ways determinative of value. But is that increase due to "inflation" as the term is used, or is it due to supply and demand parameters created by owner actions and/or tendencies? What if four of the five closer-less owners decided to punt saves and Soria went for $1? Does that mean his production is worth less? You could argue that it is, but that wouldn't constitute deflation.<br /><br />In the ebb and flow of an auction, there will always be times where there are inefficiencies in the process. The last decent shortstop might go for three times his projected value. Does that mean that the price of shortstops has become inflated. Well, yes, in the very limited sense of that player's price being pushed way beyond his value.<br /><br />I think the crucial distinction is between an isolated increase in the price of one player or one type of player due to particular circumstances of the auction or due to owner tendencies/preferences, and an overall increase in player prices which is driven solely by impact of keepers. The former is, in mind, not considered inflation. And, of course, there is no way to calculate it in advance. The latter is what I consider to be inflation. It affects the league as a whole.<br /><br />So, addressing your example directly, yes there is a good chance that Ellsbury's price will be higher than Miggy's price. But it shouldn't be. Whoever pays over the inflated value for Ellsbury will have hurt the overall value of their team.Scootronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16859285958613375829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16551285.post-27968608593436491492011-03-31T09:48:25.703-04:002011-03-31T09:48:25.703-04:00You say that a single category cannot be inflated....You say that a single category cannot be inflated. Why not? Steals have value. There are a limited (projected) number of them. If Bourn, Pierre, and Crawford are all kept for cheap, intuitively, isn't that going to raise the price on Ellsbury more than Miguel Cabrera?<br /><br />Of course, you'd have to calculate a value for stolen bases versus a value for HRs. I've been trying to find a tool to do this for a while now, unsuccessfully. Is there something off in my logic? I can't figure out why this isn't done.--rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11027955377150671938noreply@blogger.com